Secession and Skyrim

This post is going to consist of two parts. The first part will explain why I am in favor of secession and, in particular, a group of almost all whites seceding from the United states. In the second part I will respond to an article recently posted on this site which critiqued the idea of secession.

America’s Dark(er) Future

The demographics of the United States are changing. Increasingly, White’s share of the population is diminishing and the share of Blacks and Hispanics is increasing. Within 30 years whites are projected to be a minority in the United states. In part, this is because of immigration. As of 2013 there are approximately 40 million immigrants living in the United States and most of them are Hispanic. Birth rates also play an important in explaining why America is becoming increasingly non-white. In 2012 the Hispanic birth rate, defined as births per 1000 people, was 17, the Black birth rate was 15, and the White birth rate was 11. In fact, the white birth rate is not only lower than that of non whites but also below replacement level. Each year there are more white deaths than white births in the United States.

Birth Rates by Race

As these populations increase the United States will increasingly reflect the characteristics of Hispanics and Blacks. Many of those characteristics are highly troubling. Both Blacks and Hispanics are several times more likely than whites to commit a violent crime, to be in a gang, to be poor, to have a child out of wedlock, to use welfare, and to drop out of high-school. Blacks and Hispaincs also perform significantly worse on intelligence tests than whites do. Thus we can predict that our society will become more crime ridden, poorer, more welfare defendant, consist of more single mothers, more high-school drop outs, and fewer intelligent people, the darker it becomes.

There will also be important changes in our nation’s politics. Blacks and Hispanics both overwhelmingly vote democrat and have for a long time. And looking at international data we can see that governments of Hispanic and Black nations are considerably more corrupt, on average, than the governments of white nations are. So we can infer that our nation’s government will likely become more corrupt and more liberal as the nation becomes less and less white.

What we can predict then is a future in which America looks a lot more like most Hispanic and Black nations do. But that is not all. What will separate America from other Black and Brown nations is that America will be an extremely multi racial nation. There will be large numbers of Blacks, Whites, and Hispanics, living together across the nation and this will have profound implications on the level of social cohesion present in American society. Studies have shown that an area’s level of ethnic diversity is negatively associated with its social capital. In particular, a famous study carried out by Harvard political scientist Robert Putnam found that the more diverse a community is the less trust residents report having in their neighbors, media, and local government, the less people give to charity, the less people work on community projects, the fewer friends people have, and the less happy and satisfied people are with their lives.

The Case for Secession

There are two basic ways that we might avoid this future. The first is to enact reform within the current United States government, and to change the national culture, such that we can keep and expand our white majority. The second option is break away from the united states with a group of people who are already almost all white and who are more likely to keep their white majority than the current population of the United States is.

Considering the first option, the non secessionist option, the least that would need to be done is to significantly decrease current immigration levels and raise the white birth rate above that of Blacks and Hispanics. Both of these options face significant difficulties.

The majority of people in the United States today oppose decreasing current immigration levels. According to recent Gallup polling, about 36% of American’s currently favor decreasing immigration levels. And that number has gotten lower with time. Over the last 20 years the belief that we should decrease immigration levels has undergone an astounding 30 point drop in popularity. Over that same time period the belief that we should increase immigration levels gained about 20 points of popularity. Unfortunately, we have every reason to think that this decline in popularity will continue. As we have seen, our nation is becoming increasingly Hispanic and black. And polling shows that Blacks and Hispanics favor immigration more than whites do. Surveys also show that the young adults of today are considerably more liberal than any generation in the past. Thus, the voters of tomorrow will probably be even more pro immigration than the voters of today. Clearly, attempting to decrease immigration by any amount, let alone by a large enough amount to preserve a white majority, would be an extremely difficult task.

Immigration Polls

And even if we managed to curtail immigration our white majority would still be undone by birth rates. Of course, getting whites to have more children is possible. But I think that non whites, especially blacks, have a distinct advantage in reproduction. Studies show that blacks start puberty earlier than whites do, have twins more often that whites do, have shorter ovulation cycles than whites, and have higher levels of sex hormones, which leads to them having more sex, than whites do. These biological advantages make the birth rate gap difficult to overcome.

We see then that reform within the current state, while not impossible, would be difficult. I think the evidence available suggests that secession is actually more realistic, and less difficult, than reforming the current state.

Using Google, I was able to find several recent polls that looked at national support for secession. Averaging across these polls, we find that about 25% of Americans believe in the right of secession, about 18% are undecided, and about 57% are against the idea. It is useful to compare these numbers with those found when looking at immigration reform. First, it is important to note that neither position is supported by the majority. Because of this, each position’s ability to expand is more important than its current level of explicit support. One way to measure an idea’s immediate capacity for expansion is to add together those that are currently in support of the idea and those that are undecided. You might think of this is a measure of people who are open to the idea. Applying this procedure to immigration reform we find that 38% of people are open to the idea that we should decrease our current immigration levels. Applying this same procedure to secession we find that 43% are open to allowing secession. Thus, by this measure, secession has a greater potential for happening than decreasing immigration does.

Public Opinion on the Right of Secession

(To be clear, these are people who favor allowing secession not people that actually want to secede. The number of people that actually want to secede is around 17% which implies at least around 30 million whites most of which will be conservative. )

Another way we might measure the potential of an idea is by looking at how we can expect its popularity to change given changes in our populations demographics. As we have already seen, this doesn’t paint a good picture for immigration reform. Young people, Black people, And Hispanic people, who will take up an ever increasing proportion of the voting population, are less likely to support decreasing immigration levels than the current average citizen is. By contrast, Blacks, Hispanics, and Young people, are more likely than average to support the right of secession. Thus, demographic trends predict that decreasing immigration will become less popular with time while secession will become more popular. Across two separate measures then, secession appears more plausible than decreasing immigration within the current state.

But recall that decreasing immigration isn’t enough. In-order to save a white super majority in the United states without secession immigration reform would have to be accompanied by a closing of the birth rate gap. As I have already reviewed, this too would be difficult to achieve. This entails that two improbable events, one of which has been shown to be less likely than secession, would have to occur in-order for non secessionist solutions to America’s demographic problems to work. As basic probably dictates, the probably of two events occurring is significantly lower than the probability of either single event occurring. So we are justified in claiming that probability of non secessionist solutions working is significantly lower than the probability of secession.

A Ghoulish Attack on Secession

That is my basic case for secession. America has a serious demographic problem and of the possible solutions we have available secession is the most likely to actually happen. As I stated earlier, I will now respond to Ghouls’s previous article on this site which was critical of the case I have just laid out.

In the article it is claimed that championing a boom in white birth rates and a change in immigration policy is far more practical than advocating secession. Unfortunately, the article fails to look at any polling data, which is the most direct measure of an ideas popularity. Instead, the article points to various pieces of indirect evidence.

The article points out that baby boomer’s are dying and the author of the article. Ghoul thinks that this is good for conservatism. This is just plain wrong. Baby-boomers were very liberal for their time, but polling shows that millennials and members of generation X are substantially more liberal than babyboomers are.

Speculation Just Ahead

Ghoul also points to a set of experiments which found that whites are more likely to support conservative policies when they are reminded of the fact that they will soon lose their majority status. This is evidence that white people’s minds can be changed. But that’s obvious. What it doesn’t tell us is how large of an effect on poll numbers emphasizing future demographic changes could have. To say that reminding people of this fact could effect their mindset when they actually vote would be speculative. To say that it could effect their mindset so much that they would change their vote is even more speculation. And to say that this could effect so many people that anti immigration legislation could be passed is even yet more speculation. Thus, unlike my case for secession, Ghoul’s case for immigration reform is founded on all sorts of wild speculation.

Ghoul also links to an article which states that, due to the bad economy, Hispanic women are having fewer children than they used to and, because of this, the Hispanic/White fertility gap has decreased. But even with the pressures of increased poverty, Hispanics are still having more children than white. If anything, this should be a testament to how difficult it will be to actually close the gap. Further more, even if the Hispanics/White gap was closed Blacks would still be out birthing whites.

Ghoul’s final argument for the practicality of non secessionist solutions is that such solutions won’t be any harder than secession since both secession and non secessionist solutions require you to change people’s minds. Obviously, this is a bad argument. It is true that all political change requires some people to change their mind. But the whole point of my argument is that it will be easier to convince people of secession than to convince people to favor immigration reform and a closing of the racial birth rate gap.

An important flaw in Ghoul’s article is that he doesn’t even attempt to measure the plausibility of secession. Rather, he simply declares it implausible without even bothering to look at public opinion. But without measuring the plausibility of secession the data that Ghoul has on his own preferred solutions is meaningless. After all, you can’t compare the plausibility of two ideas if you only bother to look into the plausibility of the idea that you favor.

Ghoul also makes a few arguments which attempt to establish that secession would be problematic even if it was achieved. Some of these arguments don’t apply to my views on secession. For instance, he talks about a violent war with the United States. Obviously, I am talking about legal secession. Not a civil war. But some of his objections do apply to my views and so I will respond to them.

Ghoul feels a moral obligation to uphold the values of his ancestors. Because of this, he feels that dismantling the Union would somehow betray them. Personally, I don’t feel any obligation to further the values of long dead relatives I’ve never met. But even if I did this argument wouldn’t be compelling. After all, I can’t imagine that any white American pre 1960 would prefer non white rule over the nation to secession. And besides, America has a long tradition of secession. That was, after all, how the country was formed.

Obama vs Founding Fathers

Ghoul also fears the change in world order that secession could bring. Currently, the United States is far and away the most powerful nation in the world. Secession could change that and the repercussions for international relations would be massive. But Ghoul fails to recognize the fact that non whites taking over the United States could have equally massive consequences. Non white control of the government could dramatically change American foreign policy. And in the long run a mostly Hispanic nation is unlikely to keep America’s place as the world’s most powerful nation anyhow.

Ghoul also fears that a state born out of secession would have to fight other nations for resources. But this is unlikely. The United States is a huge country. A state that broke off with, say, 10% of the population would still have around 30 million people. Many nations around the world consist of smaller populations and don’t have a constant fear of invasion. Further, any new state would posses much of the advanced military research done by the US army. And it is unlikely that a state formed from the US would remain without a nuclear arsenal for long.

Finally, Ghoul asks why the fate of a state that secedes from the United States would, in the long run, be any different from the fate of the United States itself. The answer to that question comes in three parts. First, a new state would likely be more conservative than the untied states is. Most polls show that conservatives are more likely to actually want to secede than liberals. Secondly, secession will give a new nation several more generations worth of time to understand the political mistakes that the United States made. It’s possible that the increase in egalitarian racial ideas that has characterized the 20th century will continue indefinitely but I don’t see any reason to suppose that is the case. And thirdly, it is a lot easier to convince 30 million people of race based polices than it is to convince 300 million people.

Thus, Ghoul fails to make any convincing arguments against secession. And secession remains the most viable solution to America’s Demographic decline. Some, including my self, have an emotional uneasiness with secession stemming from the fact that it is a fairly radical political change. But the reality is that a Hispanic America is a pretty radical change as-well. As much as the conservative tendencies of some would prefer it, things staying the same isn’t really an option. And of the options that are real, secession seems like our best bet.